Economic Forecast for 2020 and Beyond E2

At the start of 2020, most investors and economic analysts expected the 11-year bull market to continue. And then the spread of COVID-19 changed everything. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by 3% in 2020. In addition, there is a huge amount of uncertainty about the future of the outbreak and the economic impacts associated with it. While the epidemic’s economic impact is difficult to predict, the economic forecast says we are on track for a major downturn. The question is how bad and for how long.

Economic experts Jim Rounds, George Hammond, Dennis Hoffman and Steve Zylstra join the Arizona Technology Council’s May 29th podcast to share their assessment of the damage, needed measures for economic growth and the prospects of recovery in the coming months.

Featured guests covered:

Arizona’s economic recovery
Hard-hit industries that will take the most to recover
Expected growth rates for Arizona
How 2020 compares to the crash of 2008 and the Great Depression
How can IoT and renewable energy help kickstart an economic recovery
The innovation and opportunity a downturn can spur

While the epidemic’s economic impact is difficult to predict, we are on track for a major downturn. The question is how bad and for how long.

Rounds Consulting Group advises both public and private sector entities on matters of policy and economics. The firm specializes in economic development; data collection and analysis; fiscal planning including revenue forecasting and budget development; strategic planning and marketing; impact and market studies; litigation support, and keynote speaking, and more.

Jim Rounds is president of Rounds Consulting Group, a firm specializing in economic development and tax policy analysis; education research; transportation economics; fiscal planning including revenue forecasting and budget development; strategic planning and marketing; impact and market studies; and litigation support.

He regularly provides economic advice to policymakers at the State Capitol, mayors throughout the state as well as city council members, county board members, and other public and private sector leaders in the community.

Rounds a Senior Fellow at the Goldwater Institute and serves on many boards and foundations, including the Maricopa County IDA, the Helios Education Foundation, Achieve 60 AZ, the Rodel Foundation, the Arizona Board of Regents and various state universities, among others. He serves as the lead economist for multiple rural and urban area healthcare and hospital associations and is a member of the Joint Legislative Budget Committee’s Finance Advisory Committee. He has also served on scores of committees and task force efforts at both the state and local levels.

His recent areas of study include advanced workforce analysis; minimum wage impact analysis; State Trust Land finance; public employee pension reform; utility infrastructure investment; and state and local area tourism planning. Recently, Rounds has been supporting the concept of “growing from within,” which includes efforts to better understand small business development issues, and strategic investment in education and workforce training.

Rounds began his career as a Senior Economist and Senior Budget Analyst with the Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee and has been engaged in policy related economics for more than two decades. He has a Bachelor of Science degree and a Master of Science degree in Economics from Arizona State University.

Follow Rounds Consulting on LinkedIn, Facebook, and connect with Jim on Twitter.

Founded in 1913, the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona in Tucson, Ariz. is one of the largest colleges at the University of Arizona, with over 5,400 undergraduate students and nearly 700 graduate students. Employing over 130 faculty members, the business school offers programs in accounting, economics, finance, marketing, management information systems, operations management, entrepreneurship and business administration.

Its interdisciplinary program in entrepreneurship is perennially ranked one of the world’s best. As the highest-ranking college at the University of Arizona, Eller also boasts the #1 Public Management Information Systems and ranked #7 Entrepreneurship programs nationally. The MIS program has been ranked in the Top 5 by U.S. News since the inception of the rankings, one of only three programs in the U.S. with such a distinction.

George W. Hammond directs the Economic and Business Research Center in the Eller College of Management. A specialist in econometric forecasting for more than two decades, Hammond has designed, built and used economic models to produce more than 100 forecasts for state and local economies, and completed more than 50 regional economic studies on topics including economic and workforce development, energy forecasting and the impact of higher education on human capital accumulation.

These forecasts and reports reach thousands of business leaders, policymakers and citizens each year through conferences, public presentations, publications, EBRC’s websites and social and traditional media. Hammond is a frequent contributor to local and national news services. His analysis and commentary have been featured on NBC Nightly News, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Bloomberg Businessweek and The New York Times.

In addition to directing EBRC and spearheading EBRC’s Forecasting Project, Hammond is also a research professor with academic research interests focusing on the determinants of local economic growth in the U.S., the impact of state and local policies on economic growth and the contribution of higher education to local workforce development.

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The L. William Seidman Research Institute serves as a link between the local, national and international business communities and W. P. Carey School of Business. It collects and disseminates information about local economies, benchmarks industry practices and identifies emerging business research issues.

Dennis L. Hoffman is a Professor of Economics at Arizona State University where he has published numerous academic articles and a book in the area of macroeconomics and econometrics. He has received both teaching and research awards from ASU. He received the Distinguished Faculty Research Award in 1992 and has held the title of Dean’s Council of 100 Distinguished Scholar since 1996. He served as a visiting research scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis during the summer of 1996. In 1997, Dr. Hoffman was named the Arizona Professor of the Year by the Carnegie Foundation.

In addition to his academic appointment, Dr. Hoffman has held several administrative appointments; Associate Dean for Graduate Programs, 1998-2004, Associate Dean for Research; 2004-2008, and Director of the Seidman Research Institute, 2004-present. Dr. Hoffman is also director of ASU’s Office of the University Economist, 2005-present.

In his role in the Seidman Institute – as University Economist, Dr. Hoffman is responsible for the production of policy white papers with regional, education, fiscal, and labor market emphasis. This work is supported directly by the Office of University President Michael Crow. In addition, Seidman serves as the applied contract research arm of the W. P. Carey School averaging approximately $800,000 per annum in external research contracts meeting the needs of government, community and business clients primarily in the southwest. This activity is summarized at https://seidmaninstitute.com/. Seidman is also responsible for responding to the majority of business/economic media inquiries received by the university and has considerable connections with both local and national media outlets.

Dr. Hoffman’s sponsored project efforts include the construction and maintenance of the tax revenue forecasting model used by the Executive Budget Office of the State of Arizona each year since 1982 – serving eight different Governors. Dr. Hoffman headed groups of economists who measured the economic impact of several fiscal initiatives for the State of Arizona in 1989 and in 1990. The 1989 study was commissioned by Governor Mofford as an input to fiscal initiatives that were contained in her State of the State speech in 1989. The 1990 study was requested by the Joint Select Committee on Fiscal Reform of the Arizona Legislature. In 1996 Dr. Hoffman was appointed to the Joint Select Committee on Economic Incentives of the Arizona Legislature. He also served as technical advisor for Governor Napolitano’s citizen’s fiscal reform committee (2004). At the Governor’s request, Dr. Hoffman served on the Board of the Arizona State Retirement System (ASRS) from 2012-2017. As Director of the Seidman Research Institute,

Dr. Hoffman has closely studied the regional economy in Arizona. His extensive experience with the state and local economy positions him for his current research interests that include defining and measuring the role of research universities in regional development, quantifying the value of education investments to the economic prosperity of a region, and measuring the impact of various fiscal initiatives on regional development. These current research interests align with Dr. Hoffman’s administrative assignment, Director of the Office of the University Economist, undertaken as a strategic university initiative at the direction of Arizona State University President Michael Crow. Dr. Hoffman is the faculty director of the Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity Research where he directs the Productivity and Prosperity Project.

Connect with Dennis on LinkedIn and follow Seidman on Twitter.

About the Show

AZ TechCast is dedicated to covering innovation and technology in Arizona and beyond.

Through the art of connected conversation, AZ TechCast’s guests will share their expertise, success stories, news and analysis about the region’s leading startups, companies and emerging technologies, as well as the latest industry trends and critical issues propelling the state’s growing technology ecosystem.

About Your Hosts

Steve Zylstra serves as president and CEO of the Arizona Technology Council, a role he assumed in 2007. He is responsible for strategy, operations, finance and policy development. Zylstra is a vocal spokesman for the value technology can provide in raising social and economic standards in Arizona.

Zylstra serves on numerous councils, committees and boards, was named “Leader of the Year, Technology,” by the Arizona Capitol Times, and “Most Admired Leader” by the Phoenix Business Journal. In addition, he was awarded an honorary doctorate of science in technology from the University of Advancing Technology in Tempe, Ariz.

Zylstra earned a bachelor’s degree in automotive engineering technology from Western Michigan University.

Karen Nowicki is a successful author, speaker and the creator of Deep Impact Leadership™ and SoulMarks Coaching™. She is a two-time recipient of the prestigious national Choice Award® for her book and personal development retreat. Karen was crowned the first-ever “Mompreneur of the Year” Award in 2010 for the southwestern states. She was recognized for her leadership, business acumen, and work-life balance.

Karen has been an expert guest on regional TV and radio shows, including Fox Phoenix Morning Show, Sonoran Living, Good Morning Arizona, The Chat Room, and Mid-Day Arizona. She has been a regular contributor to many print and online magazines – publishing articles and blogs for business and education.

In addition to working with private coaching clients, Karen is also the Owner & President of Phoenix Business RadioX. The Business RadioX Network amplifies the voice of business – serving the Fortune 500,000, not just the Fortune 500. Phoenix Business RadioX helps local businesses and professional associations get the word out about the important work they’re doing to serve their market, profession, and community.

Of all the experiences Karen has had the privilege of participating in over her vast career, she shares that Phoenix Business RadioX is a pinnacle adventure!

Connect with Karen on LinkedIn and follow Phoenix Business RadioX on Facebook and Instagram.

About Our Sponsor

The Arizona Technology Council, Arizona’s only statewide organization serving the technology sector, fosters a climate of innovation to enhance technology in Arizona.

A trusted resource in strengthening Arizona’s technology industry, the Council proactively eliminates impediments that companies face, accelerates the entrepreneurial mindset in the state’s expanding innovation ecosystem, and works to create a destination for companies to be, thrive and stay.

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