Dr. Noa Gafni: The New Five Forces Every Business Leader Must Understand

Intro: Broadcasting live from the Business RadioX Studios in Houston, Texas. It’s time for Houston Business Radio. Now, here’s your host.

Trisha Stetzel: Hello, Houston. Trisha Stetzel here bringing you another episode of Houston Business Radio. I’m super excited about introducing you to my lovely guest today, Dr. Noa Gafni, professor of entrepreneurship at New York University. Strategist, speaker, and global thinker focused on helping leaders navigate complexity and disruption. Noa has spent two decades rethinking how organizations understand competitive advantage in a world shaped by what she calls the new five forces technology, geopolitics, society, environment, and economy. Guess what? We’re going to talk more about that. A former fellow at the World Economic Forum and Cambridge University know has worked across five continents and brings a global perspective to entrepreneurship, leadership and the future of business. Doctor Gaffney, welcome to the show.

Dr. Noa Gafni: Trisha, thank you so much for having me.

Trisha Stetzel: I’m so excited to have you on today and I can’t wait to pick your brain. But before we get there, tell us a little bit more about who you are or what you would like for us to know about you.

Dr. Noa Gafni: Thank you so much. So I am a professor and an entrepreneur. I’ve lived and worked globally, so I’ve lived in six countries across five continents and had the privilege and the pleasure of getting to know different places, different cultures, and really bring that back to, to where I’m from, which is the New York area. I’ve been back in New York for six years now, and now leading a new entrepreneurship program at NYU, New York University. And what’s so great about it is it really does bridge the local and the global. I’m going to be launching a new master’s degree with students from 15 countries around the world, and they’re coming to the US to learn from our innovation ecosystems. So it really does feel like a full circle moment.

Trisha Stetzel: Wow, that is amazing. I love to, from your perspective here, how your global travel or the work that you’ve done globally has really led to the work that you’re doing now at the university.

Dr. Noa Gafni: Excellent. So what a great question. I think what is exciting to me about bringing this all together is the ability to see different perspectives. And one of the things that I’ve been noticing, as you know, is what I see as the new five forces. I’ve noticed that we’re really looking at the business world from an outdated lens and that around the world, Entrepreneurs, CEOs, even heads of state are really struggling. One of the people I’ve interviewed over the past decade, and I’ve interviewed Nobel Peace Prize winners, I’ve interviewed fortune 500 CEOs, I’ve interviewed activists. And, you know, it’s been a real privilege to be able to sit across the table from so many of these individuals. They keep saying the same thing over and over again, which is we’re really in the Wild West. We’re building for a world that we don’t know what’s coming. And so when I think about launching a business program today, a lot of the frameworks that we’ve been teaching in our MBA programs were created in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s. And that was a completely different world. So we really need new frameworks and new thinking for this global complex climate change focus. You know, there’s so much happening AI driven world, right? So we know that there’s a lot happening and that there has been a lot changing over the past 40, 50 years. And we need to catch up.

Trisha Stetzel: Yeah, absolutely. Okay. Now it’s time to pick your brain. I want to dive into the new five forces that are impacting business. Tell me a little more.

Dr. Noa Gafni: So I talk about the new five forces as technology, geopolitics, society, environment and economy. And the genesis of this framework was there were the original five forces, which came out in the 1970s, and the first thing any MBA student learns are the Five Forces by Michael Porter talks about how companies compete with each other in an industry. So it’s all about your competition, your suppliers, your buyers, and how they interact. And the reality is, most companies that have been blindsided by the past, you know, in the past decade or so, they haven’t been blindsided by a competitor, right? They’ve been blindsided by forces completely out of their control. So we think about the financial crisis in 2008. Lehman brothers didn’t go under because Goldman Sachs was more competitive. The whole industry almost went under because of these macroeconomic forces. And so we’re really looking at what’s disrupting businesses today. And we can look at each of the five forces separately. But when we look at them together, that’s when the magic happens. And that’s when the fear happens for many established CEOs, right?

Trisha Stetzel: Yeah, absolutely. So of the five that you just spoke about, which one do you think leaders are underestimating most right now?

Dr. Noa Gafni: So technology and geopolitics are top of mind for most fortune 500 CEOs. And to a lesser extent, I would say business owners across the board are understanding all of these five forces and how they impact them. The one that I think we’re underestimating the most is society. There are major societal shifts happening today in terms of demographic changes, culture wars, political polarization, and everybody’s getting caught in the crossfire, right? On the one hand, you have younger generations expecting CEOs to to stand up and say what’s right. On the other hand, we live in a very polarized society and not everyone’s going to agree with what you have to say. So it’s a pretty fraught space. And I would say across the board, the best way to handle things is by building trust. And trust is the new social currency.

Trisha Stetzel: Ooh, I like that. Trust is the new social currency. So you mentioned technology and then you talked about society. How do we bring technology and people together without losing one or the other?

Dr. Noa Gafni: What a great question. So in my report that recently came out, I talk about a digital bank out of Brazil called Nubank. And Nubank is a digital first bank. And what they did is they in Brazil, there are a lot of people in the population that are part of the informal economy. So it was really hard for them to get a traditional bank account. So what new bank did is it reached out to new audiences. It was working with young people. It was working with people in the informal economy. It gave them not only access to a bank account, but also to a new way of learning about financial education. So these were people who were having bank accounts for the first time. They were learning about how to save money and how to engage with money in a new way. And they were using social media in a really smart way. They knew their audience and they were, you know, they had customer support on WhatsApp and they had, uh, TikTok and Instagram be their primary channels. And what’s interesting is now they’re going to launch in the US and to plan their launch, they hired the former global head of creators at TikTok. So that’s how they’re going to be launching in the US. And I think that says a lot.

Trisha Stetzel: Yeah, absolutely. Wow. That is so interesting. And I know I’ll bet there are a lot of entrepreneurs listening today, or even business leaders that know technology is moving so fast right now. So how do we take I’m just going to call it disruption because there’s always something different happening all the time, right? So how do we take that disruption that’s happening and turn it into something like a strategic advantage instead of just simply reacting to it?

Dr. Noa Gafni: Absolutely. That’s the trick, right? That’s why these new five forces exist as a framework. It’s not just looking at the risks, it’s looking at the opportunities. I think Gen Z does this really well. I look at Gen Z entrepreneurs and I work with Gen Z entrepreneurs and they leverage technology in really smart ways. So I see Gen Z building differently in three key ways. And the first one is they really leverage social media in a smart way. They’ll actually build their audience before they’ll build a product. And the second thing they do is they really use AI for so much more than content creation. I feel like my generation, there’s a lot of automated LinkedIn content, and for Gen Z, they’re using cloud as a co-founder. They’re doing legal documents on cloud. They’re doing their back end thinking. It’s really a strategic partner and they’re not outsourcing their thinking. They’re actually leveraging it as a co-founder in some way, right? With a back and forth relationship. And the third thing they’re doing is, I think because there’s so much disruption, there’s a return to scrappy problem solving. And I think that’s exactly what we need. And that’s what small business owners do. That’s what entrepreneurs do, right? It’s really about how do we look at the problems the world is facing and come up with some scrappy solutions and build from there.

Trisha Stetzel: Okay, so I know the X gender is out there that are listening are saying I could do some scrappy decision making. However, the technology scares the heck out of me in some cases. How do, um, some of our older generation entrepreneurs settle into this new technology age that we’re in?

Dr. Noa Gafni: So I think what’s exciting is it’s a little bit more user friendly than it used to be, right? You can vibe code and app and whether you know, it’s called vibe coding or not. The idea that you don’t need a technical co-founder, you can build a website on your own in a matter of hours. You know, these are things that are really transformative. When I started my first business 20 years ago, I had to find an accountant and a web designer. Everybody through word of mouth, right? There was no infrastructure for that. And then I started my second business in 2014, and there were all of these online marketplaces, and there was WeWork, and there was Fiverr. And it was just so much easier. And now it’s just a complete game changer because you, you can really get a business off the ground in a matter of hours. You can have your your initial product, your initial website, right? And so that’s pretty exciting. You don’t need to reinvent the wheel, right? You can and you don’t need a big team either. And I think those are the things that really excite me.

Trisha Stetzel: Oh that’s amazing. So I’m thinking about, um, what you said around building their audience first. And that just seems so smart to me. If you go build your audience, then you know what it is they’re looking for. Instead of trying to build a product and sell it to people who you don’t know yet. Tell me more about your entrepreneur experience and how that’s really played into the work that you’re doing now.

Dr. Noa Gafni: So I’m excited to be teaching in this era because in the age of AI, we really do need to talk to people more than ever. So it’s easier to build a product than ever, right? We were just talking about that. But are you solving a problem? And you don’t know that until you talk to people, and you don’t know that until you test out that product with real people and adapt it to how they’re using it. I think so many entrepreneurs and so many people think entrepreneurship is this. You sit alone in a room, you sit in a garage, you do something really complicated, and then the world just picks it up, right? And so much of entrepreneurship is not that most entrepreneurship is not that any small business owner, any small entrepreneur, any emerging entrepreneur, any scale up today, they know that it’s all about the people. And I think that’s what’s so smart about these Gen Zers leveraging social media and building their audiences because they’re really listening to people. And ultimately, as the technology gets less and less complicated to develop, the people who are going to win are the ones that really understand what people need and want.

Trisha Stetzel: Yeah, absolutely. Okay. I know that there are quite a few people who already want to connect with you or know more about the work that you’re doing. So where’s the best place for them to find you? Doctor Gaffney.

Dr. Noa Gafni: I am on LinkedIn. I have a newsletter there, and I’m pretty active and would love to connect with anybody listening.

Trisha Stetzel: That’s fantastic. Okay. So you’ll find her NOAGAFNI on LinkedIn. That’s how I found her. So you guys go find her. You can find her through me and my connection to her. All right. I want to circle back to you mentioned it briefly, this report that you just recently released. Tell me more about it.

Dr. Noa Gafni: So the new five forces, it’s something that I’ve been working on for some time. I’ve been looking at them all individually, but what I think is really unique about this point in time is that all five forces are converging. The world is so complicated, and I don’t see it getting less complicated. And so I talk not only about the five forces individually, but what it means when it comes, when they come together, and what business leaders can do to navigate them. Ultimately, I think it’s it’s a complicated world. And I use the analogy of sailing and I say, here’s to sailing in the storm, because we just need to learn to navigate this very complex world with grace and with strategic thinking and also with positivity, because those are the things that we really need in order to move forward. And so we can look at the world as it is and say that it’s all doom and gloom, or we can look at the world as it is and say, here are some really interesting opportunities, and I hope we do the latter.

Trisha Stetzel: I hope so too. They are opportunities, not challenges. Right? Maybe there’s some challenges underneath there. Uh, where can folks find your the report that you’ve put out there. Best place.

Speaker 4: Best place is.

Dr. Noa Gafni: On the NYU website, but second best place is on LinkedIn. I have it linked on my profile, so feel free to reach out to me there. It’s it’s very much featured there. It’s been featured in the Financial Times Chief Executive magazine and some others as well. So hopefully it’ll be easy to find fantastic.

Trisha Stetzel: And if not, they can reach out to me and I’ll point them in the right direction. And of course, you guys, if you’re sitting in front of your computer, I will have a link inside of the show notes. You can just point and click and get directly to that amazing work that Doctor Gaffney has done. All right, I want to circle back around to something that you said. And we were talking about opportunities versus challenges, and you didn’t say the word joy, but that’s what came to mind. So how do we continue navigating all of this uncertainty and shift and change in the world while still maintaining the joy, the joy that we have for our businesses or for the businesses that we’re supporting.

Dr. Noa Gafni: I personally have been thinking a lot about Fun, Impact and how we can bring the joy back into our work. So I took a few weeks out in December to spend time with my husband and my kids and was really reflecting on the past year. And of course, the world is complicated. Things are so challenging. You know, there are so many crises happening in the world and people who are in real danger. And so I don’t want to make light of that. At the same time, I believe that my work has purpose and that my work has meaning, and that if I can find the the joy in doing the work, then that will continue to sustain me. And the impact space, which is where I’ve spent a lot of my time. So many people get burnt out, right? It’s, you know, and, and Trisha, you know, with your background and life of service across the board. It can be really tricky, right? To to maintain that energy. And so I think having joyful impact and, and really committing to the joy in our work is the most important thing we can do because otherwise we get burnt out and then we’re not able to commit in the same way.

Trisha Stetzel: Mhm. How important was it for you to take that time away? And what would you suggest to those who haven’t stepped away from their work in a very long time?

Dr. Noa Gafni: I think it’s essential. And I felt so guilty. I felt so guilty. Who am I to take time out when the world is on fire? And the truth is, we all need to take a step back. We all need to reflect. We need that time to recharge. And we need that time to be around the people that are with us throughout. Right. It’s not just about being with colleagues. It’s about being with family and friends and, and giving energy to those who, who give us energy as well.

Trisha Stetzel: Absolutely. So let’s talk about that circle. I’ve always loved this saying you become the average of the five people you spend the most time with. So how important is it to have the right people in the room supporting you?

Dr. Noa Gafni: I think it’s important at work. It’s important at home. It’s important in our communities. If I think about it, even just on the work front, when I’m surrounded by smart people who push my thinking, I feel so much more engaged in the work that I’m doing. I feel like my output is so much better and I feel happier at work, frankly. You know, I think there’s something to be said for being challenged in a good way, right? We we don’t want to feel out of our depth. But at the same time, colleagues that are so smart and I feel so privileged at NYU that I’m surrounded by such smart, caring, passionate people who really believe in the future of education. These people are pushing my thinking, and I think they’re making my work better too.

Trisha Stetzel: Always because we want to hang around with people who are bigger, better, faster, stronger than we are so that we can become the average of those people in the room. What about for those who are listening today that have people in their room that maybe they let in early on, and they know that they need to get rid of them because they’re not necessarily the right people. What would you say to them about extracting that person or people from your room that really aren’t contributing to your joy or your success?

Dr. Noa Gafni: I think you’re saying it’s so politely, right? If somebody’s not contributing to your joy or your success, they’re detracting from it. And I think we have to be really honest about who is taking energy away from our joy and our impact. And of course, we all have give and take relationships, right? I think sometimes my family is a source of my strength. Sometimes they lean on me and and that happens, right? Those are the cycles of life. And I think that’s one thing. But to say somebody is just, you know, not doesn’t have my best interest at heart. Somebody is constantly questioning my decisions in a way that is not healthy or helpful. Those are the things that I think we really have to evaluate because our time is so finite and so precious and who we let in matters.

Trisha Stetzel: Absolutely. What do you have to say on the topic of no n o or learning to say no to certain things?

Dr. Noa Gafni: I think as women we find it so hard, right?

Speaker 5: Yes. So hard.

Dr. Noa Gafni: We’re taught that it’s not the right thing to say. And and, and many of us have caregiving responsibilities and work and life, and that makes it really hard. And so it’s something I’m learning to be better at as well, right? To. And sometimes that means that I’m letting go of certain aspects of my life temporarily. And that is so hard to do. Um, I don’t have the big friend group I used to have, but I have a really solid family life. And so I think it’s, you know, there are phases for everything. And, and it’s hard to say no, but I think my energy depends on it. And energy is everything.

Trisha Stetzel: Mhm. And we just continue to practice. Practice, practice, practice. And sometimes we still say yes to things that maybe we shouldn’t have and we learn. Right? It’s just part of it. So I’m thinking about all of the things because as women, we do often take on a lot of responsibility, not just for ourselves, but for those around us. For those women who are listening today, who are really feeling the pressure and overwhelm of trying to do all of the things, what would you say to her?

Dr. Noa Gafni: I feel you. I’m in there. I’m there too. We’re all, you know, so many of us are there. Trisha, I’m sure you’re there too, in so many ways. Right. I wish we talked about the trade offs tomorrow. I really do, and I wish we talked about the systems we have in place and that, of course, there’s no one system. I have friends that do things in a certain way. Friends do things in the complete opposite way. And I think there’s a lot of judgment and social media is making things worse. And that’s we can’t listen to the noise. We just have to listen to ourselves and our communities and really be there for each other. I think this whole, you know, tradwife versus girlboss on social media is so harmful. It’s so harmful. Why do we need to call ourselves certain things, right? You can be one way, in one context. You can be a different way in a different context, or to be neither. And I think that’s fine too.

Trisha Stetzel: I love that so much. Sometimes we just have to give ourselves grace and say it’s okay to not be everything to everyone all the time. Actually, it’s good for you to not be. It’s good for you to not be. Uh. All right. I want to circle back around to the new five forces. We touched on technology. We’ve talked about society. We didn’t dig into the other three much, but in geopolitics, environment and economy, what would you add about those three that we didn’t talk about today that might be important for people to hear?

Dr. Noa Gafni: So I think a great example of this is Sheehan, the Chinese fast fashion brand. And you know, all the Gen Zers listening out there know exactly what it is. But for those who don’t, because I didn’t know them until recently, they are really, really cheap clothing coming straight from China. And last summer they were sending 900,000 airmail packages a day to the US. They use AI to come up with like all of these micro-trends and people just most of their products are under $10. So you can imagine in this economy, people, it was flying off the shelves, but they built their business model on, you know, dirty materials, environmentally unsustainable practices. And so they really struggled actually with the Iran war. So when oil prices went up, they were in real trouble because all of the plasticky materials that they use, like acrylic are actually oil based. And so when petroleum prices went up, they were really struggling to maintain their margins. The other thing that of course went up were fuel prices, right? And so when they were shipping all of these packages to the US via airmail, they got really caught out. And so what’s interesting is that they were really struggling. And since then, in the past few months, they’ve decided to buy one of the most sustainable fashion brands out there called Everlane. So you can see that all of these three intersect and that when we don’t practice good business, it always comes back in the end, right? Because things change and it’s no surprise that she is buying Everlane because, um, you know, it’s just it makes so much sense. Right?

Speaker 5: Yeah.

Trisha Stetzel: It’s almost like that. Who’s in your room?

Dr. Noa Gafni: In your room. And what are you practicing? Right? What are the business practices and the personal practices that you have? Because I think going back to society, when you’re not living your values as a person or as a corporation, it catches up to you.

Trisha Stetzel: Mhm. It always does. Oh my goodness, our time has gone by so fast. This has been such a great conversation. I have one last question for you. What is next for Noa?

Dr. Noa Gafni: I’m so excited to be launching this new master’s program in the fall at NYU. It’s a master’s of entrepreneurship. It’s only nine months and continuing to work on the new five forces and always looking for ideas, feedback, examples, especially from people who are doing the work on the ground. And so would love to hear from your audience, from you all to really understand how are these forces impacting your lives and your work?

Trisha Stetzel: I love that. Thank you so much for your time. This has been such a wonderful conversation.

Dr. Noa Gafni: Thank you so much, Trisha. This has been a joy.

Trisha Stetzel: All right, you guys. Dr. Noa Gafni  . You can find her on LinkedIn. Noagafni. Or you can find my profile and connect to her through me. And again, thank you for your time today.

Dr. Noa Gafni: Thank you.

Trisha Stetzel: All right, you guys, that’s all I’ve got for you today. If you found value in this conversation that Noa and I had, please share it with a fellow entrepreneur, a veteran, or a Houston leader ready to grow. And of course, be sure to follow, rate and review the show. It helps us reach more bold business minds just like yours and your business. Your leadership and your legacy are built one intentional step at a time. So stay inspired, stay focused, and keep building the business and the life you deserve.